‘Super El Nino’ Odds Climb, Raising Fears of Extreme Heat and Severe Weather

Weather officials are sounding the alarm over a potential strong El Niño event that could bring extreme weather conditions across the globe later this year.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 percent chance El Niño will develop before September and a 90 percent chance it could persist through November.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will ⁠exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, per Yahoo! News.

El Niño is a climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters can disrupt weather patterns around the world, leading to droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.

The WMO warned that a strong El Niño could contribute to more extreme temperatures in the United States and elsewhere.

“Extreme heat alone ​is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face, and an El Niño event could intensify the threat,” Saulo added. “Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits.”

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said conditions from El Niño “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”

“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” the U.N. official continued.

Meanwhile, a National Weather Service forecast issued in May found that the odds of a “super El Niño” occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 have increased from 25 percent to 37 percent.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a super El Niño in 2026 would be the first since 2015-16 and could potentially become the strongest on record.

NOAA also noted that such an event could help drive one of the five hottest summers ever recorded in either 2026 or 2027.